Another Active Year Ahead for Severe Weather
Forecasts in early 2020 predicted an “above-normal” Atlantic hurricane season. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted 13 to 15 named storms and 6 to10 major hurricanes. However, as the summer progressed, it soon became clear that the U.S. would face a record-breaking season of tropical storms and hurricanes.
The 2020 hurricane season was the most active on record, with 30 named storms and 14 hurricanes, which is an impressive metric, even with the limitation that prior to circa 1965 only direct ship sited storms were counted. Of the 30 storms, 11 made landfall in the U.S., breaking the previous record set in 1916.
In addition to the record-breaking hurricane season, utilities also had to face complications stemming from COVID-19. As Mike Beehler notes in a recent article in Public Utilities Fortnightly:
“Utilities are no strangers to preparing for and responding to emergencies. However, decades of experience could not have prepared us for multiple and concurrent crises. With COVID-19 promptly followed by annual weather events and devastating fires, many utilities find themselves confronting a new crisis before having time to fully address the previous one. This Black Swan event has strained resources in ways that few would have predicted.”
2021 Hurricane Season Predictions
The Atlantic hurricane season started on June 1 and extends until November 30.
The NOAA released its seasonal outlook on May 20, 2021. Forecasters predict a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
- 13 to 20 named storms
- 9 hurricanes
- 4 major hurricanes
Other pre-season forecasts for 2021 are predicting another year of above-average activity.
- 18 named storms
- 9 hurricanes
- 4 major hurricanes
- 17 named storms
- 8 hurricanes
- 4 major hurricanes
- 18 named storms
- 8 hurricanes
- 3 major hurricanes
North Carolina State University
- 15 to 18 named storms
- 7 to 9 hurricanes
- 2 to 3 major hurricanes
- 16 to 20 named storms
- 7 to 10 hurricanes
- 3 to 5 major hurricanes
Other Severe Weather Events
Hurricanes are not the only severe weather events utilities must prepare to face. Data from the NOAA indicates the increasing frequency of “billion-dollar” severe weather events over the last twenty years. From 2000-2010, billion-dollar weather events occurred at an average of 6.3 per year. For 2010-2019, the yearly average increased to 12.3 per year. 2020 alone saw 22 billion-dollar severe weather events, costing an estimated $95.8 billion in damage. 2020 marks the sixth consecutive year in which 10 or more of these events have impacted the U.S.
The increase in billion-dollar events is likely affected by factors other than the number of severe storms, such as, inflation-impacted replacement costs, the age and density of overhead utility assets, the increase in homes built in risk prone areas, and challenges with right-of-way maintenance. However, the metric is still useful with a few year window to indicate the impact these events have on the U.S infrastructure, state gross domestic product (GDP), and society in general.
Are Utilities Prepared?
With another active hurricane season on the horizon and the upward trend of other events like wildfires, tornadoes, and floods—it seems clear that utilities must continue to face and adapt to challenges posed by the new reality of severe weather events.
Preparation is key to recovering quickly from severe weather threats. In addition to reviewing and updating disaster response as needed, we encourage utilities to review reliability and resiliency measures.
Adding resiliency to our electrical grid is key to withstanding future events. See our Utility Infrastructure Resiliency Playbook for more information and case studies showing how utilities are building resiliency into their systems. Other resources like webinars are also available on our White Papers and Presentations page.
